GBP/JPY sure to remain talk-of-the-town
By Sean Lee || October 18, 2009 at 22:53 GMT
Lots of volatility again in GBP/JPY and it is right back up at NY closing levels after dipping to 148.00 in early trade. Dealers have not got much to report on the order front at this stage and we expect most movement to be driven by new flows. Resistance in USD/JPY is at 91.30/40 and above there at 92.50
;From: http://www.forexlive.com/58391/all/gbpjpy-sure-to-remain-talk-of-the-town
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Wednesday, October 14, 2009
UPDATE 1-Japan budget requests may top 90 trillion yen - Nikkei
Oct 15 (Reuters) - Budget requests from Japanese government ministries and agencies are expected to reach an all-time high of more than 90 trillion yen for the 2010/11 fiscal year, while tax revenue appears to be lagging initial expectations, the Nikkei business daily said.
Of the expenditures, tax allocations to local governments are estimated at 17 trillion yen ($190 billion), debt-servicing costs are seen at about 22 trillion yen and general expenditures are expected to sharply exceed 50 trillion yen, the paper said, without citing any sources.
Thursday is the deadline for submitting budget requests to the Finance Ministry.
Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii has asked cabinet members to keep their total requests below the 88.54 trillion yen in the initial 2009/10 budget, excluding funds necessary to meet election pledges by the Democratic Party of Japan.
The Democrats won a general election on Aug. 30, ending a half century of nearly unbroken rule by the Liberal Democratic Party.
However, several ministries are expected to seek outlays that the Democrats did not promise, the paper said.
Worsening corporate earnings might drag tax revenue for fiscal 2009/10 to below 40 trillion yen, lower than the government's initial estimate of 46 trillion yen, the paper said.
With tax receipts projected to remain sluggish in fiscal 2010/11, the government may have no choice but to issue more deficit-covering bonds if it is unable to slash spending, the daily added. ($1=89.14 Yen) (Reporting by Archana Shankar in Bangalore; Editing by Deepak Kannan)
From: http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKBNG46722620091014?rpc=401
Of the expenditures, tax allocations to local governments are estimated at 17 trillion yen ($190 billion), debt-servicing costs are seen at about 22 trillion yen and general expenditures are expected to sharply exceed 50 trillion yen, the paper said, without citing any sources.
Thursday is the deadline for submitting budget requests to the Finance Ministry.
Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii has asked cabinet members to keep their total requests below the 88.54 trillion yen in the initial 2009/10 budget, excluding funds necessary to meet election pledges by the Democratic Party of Japan.
The Democrats won a general election on Aug. 30, ending a half century of nearly unbroken rule by the Liberal Democratic Party.
However, several ministries are expected to seek outlays that the Democrats did not promise, the paper said.
Worsening corporate earnings might drag tax revenue for fiscal 2009/10 to below 40 trillion yen, lower than the government's initial estimate of 46 trillion yen, the paper said.
With tax receipts projected to remain sluggish in fiscal 2010/11, the government may have no choice but to issue more deficit-covering bonds if it is unable to slash spending, the daily added. ($1=89.14 Yen) (Reporting by Archana Shankar in Bangalore; Editing by Deepak Kannan)
From: http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKBNG46722620091014?rpc=401
Exchange Rate Movements in Crisis and Beyond
By Brian Hoyt
Editor's note: Sebastian Weber and Charles Wyplosz are from the Graduate Institute in Geneva. They are the authors of a World Bank working paper on Exchange Rates during the Crisis (.pdf).
A key leitmotiv as the financial crisis unfolded was to avoid a repeat of the policy mistakes of the Great Depression, including the beggar-thy-neighbour competitive devaluations which have had devastating effects causing rising protectionism and a collapse of international trade (Kindleberger, 1973).
Unlike in the '30s, only some 42% of countries are officially pegging their exchange rate today, implying that movements in the exchange rate do not necessarily reflect official decisions, but are rather market-driven. Furthermore, governments today have many more policy tools at hand, ranging from fiscal policy over labour markets to monetary policy measures, making them less reliant on measures that are perceived as beggar-thy-neighbour.
While exchange rates have moved a lot since the onset of the crisis, these movements have mostly been interpreted as a byproduct of expansionary policies and the move to ‘quality’. Sharp depreciations in countries like the UK or South Korea have not been welcomed by the authorities, at least not officially. Intentions, of course, are hard to detect and no one will argue that expansionary policies were not needed.
XRduringcrisis
The sharp appreciation of the dollar against most currencies by the end of 2008 (see graph) and the following decline in the dollar’s value starting again in the beginning of 2009 had two immediate consequences:
First, countries which pegged to the greenback, be it a dejure or defacto peg, lost heavily in competitiveness with respect to most of their floating counterparts in late 2008. This heightened the incentive for many countries, already constrained in their policy options, to devalue against the dollar to “reestablish” their export competitiveness in a time that global demand was already collapsing. Countries like Singapore and Vietnam gave in and lowered their currency’s respective value to the US dollar. Similarly, Kazakhstan and Armenia devalued against the dollar in response to the decline in the value of the Russian ruble and the devaluations in Ukraine and Belarus.
Second, the ongoing fall in the value of the US dollar since the beginning of 2009 shifts the adjustment burden to a greater extent on those countries which did not depreciate (too much) against the dollar in the midst of the crisis. This includes the euro zone but also Eastern European nations which peg to the euro. Many of these countries already had large pre-crisis trade deficits which tended to widen even further. On the other end of the specter remain the nations with the big surpluses which often peg more or less loosely to the dollar, including several Asian countries, some of which strengthened their nominal competitiveness even more throughout the crisis. Hence, the fall in the dollar’s value may be conducive to the reduction of the US deficit position, and it is likely to contribute to an increasing imbalance between various European states and Asian economies that anchor to the dollar.
Hence, even as the worst of the current crisis may be over, there remains a big uncertainty regarding the future developments of exchange rates and to which extent they will be supportive in facilitating adjustments to external imbalances of countries.
While direct foreign exchange interventions remained contained during the crisis, the incentives to use the exchange rate channel as a mean to overcome the consequences of the crisis (high debt and low demand) remain very vivid.
From: http://seekingalpha.com/article/166487-exchange-rate-movements-in-crisis-and-beyond
Editor's note: Sebastian Weber and Charles Wyplosz are from the Graduate Institute in Geneva. They are the authors of a World Bank working paper on Exchange Rates during the Crisis (.pdf).
A key leitmotiv as the financial crisis unfolded was to avoid a repeat of the policy mistakes of the Great Depression, including the beggar-thy-neighbour competitive devaluations which have had devastating effects causing rising protectionism and a collapse of international trade (Kindleberger, 1973).
Unlike in the '30s, only some 42% of countries are officially pegging their exchange rate today, implying that movements in the exchange rate do not necessarily reflect official decisions, but are rather market-driven. Furthermore, governments today have many more policy tools at hand, ranging from fiscal policy over labour markets to monetary policy measures, making them less reliant on measures that are perceived as beggar-thy-neighbour.
While exchange rates have moved a lot since the onset of the crisis, these movements have mostly been interpreted as a byproduct of expansionary policies and the move to ‘quality’. Sharp depreciations in countries like the UK or South Korea have not been welcomed by the authorities, at least not officially. Intentions, of course, are hard to detect and no one will argue that expansionary policies were not needed.
XRduringcrisis
The sharp appreciation of the dollar against most currencies by the end of 2008 (see graph) and the following decline in the dollar’s value starting again in the beginning of 2009 had two immediate consequences:
First, countries which pegged to the greenback, be it a dejure or defacto peg, lost heavily in competitiveness with respect to most of their floating counterparts in late 2008. This heightened the incentive for many countries, already constrained in their policy options, to devalue against the dollar to “reestablish” their export competitiveness in a time that global demand was already collapsing. Countries like Singapore and Vietnam gave in and lowered their currency’s respective value to the US dollar. Similarly, Kazakhstan and Armenia devalued against the dollar in response to the decline in the value of the Russian ruble and the devaluations in Ukraine and Belarus.
Second, the ongoing fall in the value of the US dollar since the beginning of 2009 shifts the adjustment burden to a greater extent on those countries which did not depreciate (too much) against the dollar in the midst of the crisis. This includes the euro zone but also Eastern European nations which peg to the euro. Many of these countries already had large pre-crisis trade deficits which tended to widen even further. On the other end of the specter remain the nations with the big surpluses which often peg more or less loosely to the dollar, including several Asian countries, some of which strengthened their nominal competitiveness even more throughout the crisis. Hence, the fall in the dollar’s value may be conducive to the reduction of the US deficit position, and it is likely to contribute to an increasing imbalance between various European states and Asian economies that anchor to the dollar.
Hence, even as the worst of the current crisis may be over, there remains a big uncertainty regarding the future developments of exchange rates and to which extent they will be supportive in facilitating adjustments to external imbalances of countries.
While direct foreign exchange interventions remained contained during the crisis, the incentives to use the exchange rate channel as a mean to overcome the consequences of the crisis (high debt and low demand) remain very vivid.
From: http://seekingalpha.com/article/166487-exchange-rate-movements-in-crisis-and-beyond
Daily market focus: Cyclicals leads Euro rally
European markets have opened very strongly this morning with the DJ Euro Stoxx 600 up 1% and the FTSE All-Share up 1.3%.
markets-big-jpg
There is widespread strength across all sectors with the more cyclical areas (basic materials, financials and oil & gas) leading the rally.
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US equities finished mostly lower on Tuesday, with trading fairly subdued ahead of a pickup in activity on the earnings calendar over the next few days, particularly for the financials and technology sectors.
The S&P 500 was down 0.3% and the Dow Jones was down 0.2%. There was renewed selling pressure in managed care stocks as the passage of healthcare reform legislation progressed in Congress.
From: http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/1558481/daily-market-focus-cyclicals-leads-euro-rally
markets-big-jpg
There is widespread strength across all sectors with the more cyclical areas (basic materials, financials and oil & gas) leading the rally.
ADVERTISEMENT
US equities finished mostly lower on Tuesday, with trading fairly subdued ahead of a pickup in activity on the earnings calendar over the next few days, particularly for the financials and technology sectors.
The S&P 500 was down 0.3% and the Dow Jones was down 0.2%. There was renewed selling pressure in managed care stocks as the passage of healthcare reform legislation progressed in Congress.
From: http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment-week/news/1558481/daily-market-focus-cyclicals-leads-euro-rally
Tuesday, October 13, 2009
Euro down against dollar ahead of German survey
FRANKFURT
The euro was slightly lower against the dollar on Tuesday as markets awaited a German investor confidence survey and more third-quarter earnings reports.
The 16-nation euro bought $1.4768 in morning European trading, down from $1.4776 late Monday in New York.
The British pound was down to $1.5749 from $1.5786, while the dollar rose to 90.11 Japanese yen from 89.84 yen.
In Germany, the euro zone's biggest economy, the ZEW institute's monthly investor confidence survey was due later Tuesday. The survey, which measures investors' outlook for the next six months, hit a three-year high last month.
Investors also are looking to third-quarter earnings in the U.S., where chipmaker Intel and consumer products company Johnson & Johnson were due to report Tuesday, for pointers on the state of the economy.
On Monday, Dutch-based Royal Philips Electronics NV reported an unexpected surge in third-quarter profits and improvements in earnings and sales.
Good economic news has tended to weigh on the dollar recently, prompting investors to leave the traditional safe haven of the U.S. currency for riskier assets.
The euro versus the dollar "is consolidating around $1.4800 and the next big level will be a move up toward the psychological $1.5000 mark," currency analyst David Jones at IG Index wrote in a research note.
From: http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9BA2NP00.htm
The euro was slightly lower against the dollar on Tuesday as markets awaited a German investor confidence survey and more third-quarter earnings reports.
The 16-nation euro bought $1.4768 in morning European trading, down from $1.4776 late Monday in New York.
The British pound was down to $1.5749 from $1.5786, while the dollar rose to 90.11 Japanese yen from 89.84 yen.
In Germany, the euro zone's biggest economy, the ZEW institute's monthly investor confidence survey was due later Tuesday. The survey, which measures investors' outlook for the next six months, hit a three-year high last month.
Investors also are looking to third-quarter earnings in the U.S., where chipmaker Intel and consumer products company Johnson & Johnson were due to report Tuesday, for pointers on the state of the economy.
On Monday, Dutch-based Royal Philips Electronics NV reported an unexpected surge in third-quarter profits and improvements in earnings and sales.
Good economic news has tended to weigh on the dollar recently, prompting investors to leave the traditional safe haven of the U.S. currency for riskier assets.
The euro versus the dollar "is consolidating around $1.4800 and the next big level will be a move up toward the psychological $1.5000 mark," currency analyst David Jones at IG Index wrote in a research note.
From: http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9BA2NP00.htm
Friday, October 9, 2009
Bernanke Hawkish, Stocks Bullish Fever, Dollar Rallies
The stock market rallied again today resulting in the most bullish week since July. Fed Chief Ben Bernanke exhibited hawkish sentiment by stating that monetary policy will be tightened once economic improvement is witnessed. These words triggered a substantial rally in the U.S. Dollar causing it to rise the most in two months against the Yen. Stocks were so exuberant that momentum carried them higher despite Bernanke's bearish statement. The DJIA surged +78.07 to 9864.94, the tech heavy Nasdaq advanced +15.35 to 2139.28 and the broad based S&P 500 climbed +6.01 to 1071.49.
Thursday, October 8, 2009
Trichet: Rates appropriate
Trichet: Rates appropriate
* Inflation negative, but to rebound into positive territory.
* Economy recovering slowly
* Price stability to be maintained, inflation expectations firmly anchored
From: http://www.forexlive.com/56223/all/trichet-rates-appropriate
* Inflation negative, but to rebound into positive territory.
* Economy recovering slowly
* Price stability to be maintained, inflation expectations firmly anchored
From: http://www.forexlive.com/56223/all/trichet-rates-appropriate
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Yen Moves in Flat Market
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The currency market continued to trade with very thin momentum during the U.S. session. The only exception was the yen, but the rest of the market traded far below the ATR of the last few weeks. This comes, as investors prepare for the Bank of England and for the European Central Bank to announce the latest monetary policy developments Thursday during the late European/early U.S. session.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10608589/1/yen-moves-in-flat-market.html?puc=_tscrss
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10608589/1/yen-moves-in-flat-market.html?puc=_tscrss
Monday, December 22, 2008
USDJPY (H4) "30P"
TREND = DOWN
Zona de Pressão = DOWN
Support = 88.4 >> 87.1
Resistences = 91.6 >> 93.5 >> 95.0
Not entry point for BUY.
Waiting for SELL under 89.3 TARGET 87.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
EURUSD (H4) "30P"
Trend = UP
Trend HIGH is STRONG, no signals for entry now.
We can wait for downmove SELLING 1.30 TARGET 1.28
Support = 1.319 >> 1.30 >> 1.28
Resistence = 1.362 >> 1.38 >> 1.40
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