USDJPY (H4) "30P"

TREND = DOWN

Zona de Pressão = DOWN

Support = 88.4 >> 87.1

Resistences = 91.6 >> 93.5 >> 95.0

Not entry point for BUY.

Waiting for SELL under 89.3 TARGET 87.

EURUSD (H4) "30P"

Trend = UP

Trend HIGH is STRONG, no signals for entry now.

We can wait for downmove SELLING 1.30 TARGET 1.28

Support =  1.319  >> 1.30 >> 1.28

Resistence = 1.362 >> 1.38 >> 1.40

GBPUSD H4 -- "30P"

Points "30P"...

Trend Now = SIDE
Pression = DOWN

Target Now = Upper Resistence 1.56

Supports = 1.488 >> 1.482 >>1.472.
Resistence = 1.50 >> 1.513 >> 1.527.

I am OUT now, just waiting for SELL 1.484.

If pair cross 1.56 then we will start UPTREND.

Source = Skyson

GBPJPY Trend for 2009

Trend is: DOWN

Support: 134 >> 132 e 125.

Resistencia 146.5 >> 151 >> 164.

Entry: BUY ONLY ABOVE 146,5 Target = 150 (TREND STILL DOWN)

Not sell for now

My Results

Orders = 009

Result = + 140 pips

Orders #008 and #009 closed....

#008 hit 1.1475 resulting 105 pips profit

#009 hit 1.1475 resulting 135 pips profit

Bulltradinggoal #009 BUY USD/CHF

Bulltradinggoal #008 BUY USD/CHF
Entry = 1.134

TP = 1.136 , 1.139 . 1.1430 , 1.1475 , 1.150

SL = 1.124


This the #009 entry

Orders #008 and #009 are open

Order #007 Hit Stop Low

#007 Hit Stop Low.

Total after #007 orders = -110 pips

Skyson .. USD JPY hit ZCP and back down..

Yesterday we saw GBPUSD hit ZCP and turn down...

Today was USDJPY hit ZCP and too turn down




See GBPUSD post: Here

MY target for USDJPY down move is 100.8

Bulltradinggoal #008 BUY USD/CHF

Entry = 1.137

TP = 1.139 , 1.1415 . 1.1440 , 1.1475 , 1.150

SL = 1.124


This the #008 entry

Order #007 .. SELL EUR/USD - BullTradingGoal

Someone SELL ENTRY POINT

Next candle 17h GMT 00.


IF EURUSD down 1.3520 SELL.

ENTRY: 1.3520

TP: 1.3505 , 1.3490 , 1.3465 , 1.3430 , 1.3385.

SL: 1.13640

Remember, we need test 1.3520 to enter.

Skyson .. GBPUSD hit ZCP and back down..

Hi,

now GBPUSD hit our ZCP into Skyson, great resistence point.

GBPUSD now into downmove, looking for 1.71



Full image here: http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/8814/skyson0125vk7.gif

Results...

Six orders..

Now, after 006 orders, we have +10 pips

Closed: #005 and #006

##########################################
Bulltradinggoal #005 BUY USD/JPY
#005 BUY USD/JPY:

Entry Point: 100.75

TP: 100.90 , 101,20 , 101,45 , 101,7 , 102.0

SL: 99.50


CLOSED: Hit 101.15 , Profit = 40 pips
##########################################

##########################################
Bulltradinggoal #006 SELL GBP/USD
Now Bulltradinggoal is SELLING GBP/USD

Entry Point: 1.6990

TP: 1.6980 , 1.6960 , 1.6930 , 1.6905 , 1.6880 , 1.6855.
SL: 1.7100.

CLOSED: Hit 1.696 , Profit = 30 pips

Bulltradinggoal #006 SELL GBP/USD

Now Bulltradinggoal is SELLING GBP/USD

Entry Point: 1.6990

TP: 1.6980 , 1.6960 , 1.6930 , 1.6905 , 1.6880 , 1.6855.
SL: 1.7100.

Bulltradinggoal #005 BUY USD/JPY

#005 BUY USD/JPY:

Entry Point: 100.75

TP: 100.90 , 101,20 , 101,45 , 101,7 , 102.0

SL: 99.50

Closed: #003 and #004

#003 hit SL, resulting -160 pips

#004 hit TP, resulting +100 pips

Now, after 004 orders, we have -60 pips

Bulltradinggoal for all #003 and #004

Order #001 and #002 canceled.

No hit

Order #003 (confirmed)

BUY - EUR/USD:

Entry = 1.3680

TP = 1.369 , 1.371 , 1.3735 and 1.376

SL: 1.3520

Order #004 (confirmed)

SELL - USD/CHF

Entry = 1.1290

TP: 1.1280 , 1.1260 , 1.1235 , 1.1220 , 1.1190

SL: 1.1490

Bulltradinggoal for all

Lest Talk:

MSN: bulltradinggoal@hotmail.com



receive entry point live in MSN.

Welcome BullTradingGoal

today I go to show my new system



BullTradingGoal

Lets Go see the trading...

####################################################################

: Waiting confirmation:

SELL ... EUR/USD

Price: 1.3610

TP: 1.360 . 1.3585 . 1.3565 . 1.3540
SL: 1.3750


BUY ... USD/CHF

Price: 1.1350

TP: 1.1365 . 1.1380 . 1.1400 .. 1.1430
SL: 1.1125

ECB's Stark Sees No Potential For Global Recession - Report

ECB's Stark Sees No Potential For Global Recession - Report

Sun, Sep 21 2008, 12:14 GMT
http://www.djnewswires.com/eu

ECB's Stark Sees No Potential For Global Recession - Report

FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--The crisis on the international financial markets won't lead to a global recession as the world isn't as much dependent upon the U.S. economy anymore, European Central Bank executive board member Juergen Stark said in an interview published Sunday.

"I don't see any potential for a global recession," Stark told Sunday paper Welt am Sonntag. In addition to being less dependent upon developments for the U.S. economy, the world economy is benefiting from newly established growth drivers in emerging markets, he said.

Stark said he isn't afraid there might be a period of deflation ahead.

"There's no sign of such a scenario," he told the paper. Previous "exaggerations" on the financial markets are now being corrected, and such a process "is painful," he said.

As for German economic growth, Stark said we "are likely to see very weak data in the third quarter." Depending on how much the recent developments will weigh on investors' and private households' sentiment, "we may see weaker economic growth in Germany over a prolonged period of time," he said.

Newspaper Web site: http://www.welt.de

-By Klaus Brune, Dow Jones Newswires; 49-69-29725-500; klaus.brune@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

September 21, 2008 08:14 ET (12:14 GMT)

From: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=72676c62-99d7-43fc-80f2-b7363e4b2a72

For every dollar of GDP, there is $3.49 of debt

For every dollar of GDP, there is $3.49 of debt
By BILL GREINER
Chief investment officer, UMB Asset Management

First and foremost, we believe that too much debt currently exists in the U.S. economy.

As compared to the Gross Domestic Product, the total debt picture within the U.S. is 349 percent. In other words, for every dollar of GDP, there exists $3.49 of debt. Other countries are much less leveraged than we are.

As another background point, investment banking operations have historically been the core business of the brokerage houses. In the last few years, with the proliferation of debt within the economy, these firms have focused more of their time and capital on trading their own “book” instead of spending time and energy on the investment banking business. These firms have become much more reliant on their book profitability than their core business — investment banking.

At this stage, enter the hedge fund managers. Hedge fund investment strategies vary all over the map.

However, many have one thing in common: Many use debt in some format for various reasons.

So, a hedge fund manager who is managing $100 million in assets may indeed be making decisions and affecting a multiple of that $100 million in assets.

Consequently, when a hedge fund manager moves in a direction, the impact on the markets and on various financial institutions can be rapid and extreme.

When certain hedge managers see a firm struggling, they will short-sell the common stock of that firm. When this starts, many other hedge fund managers, like a cloud of locusts, may short-sell the company. This leveraged activity will drive the stock of the business down rapidly, putting a question mark over the company as to its ability to stay in business.

Consequently, we have two problems. The first has to do with the amount of leverage not only within the brokerage and banking businesses, but also the amount of debt outstanding within the country. Secondly, the relatively unregulated hedge fund industry moving extremely large sums of capital against a company with a highly leveraged balance sheet in need of daily capital inflows.

These two operatives are currently risks that need to be addressed prior to this problem coming to an end.

http://www.kansascity.com/business/story/806122.html

Dollar falls versus euro as traders rethink U.S. rate hike prospect

The U.S. dollar edged lower on Wednesday as investors adjusted their interest rate outlook for the United States and the eurozone after conflicting economic data and monetary authorities toned down threats of tighter monetary policy.

Competing central bank rhetoric was likely to make trading conditions more volatile in the days ahead while declining U.S. stock markets also helped erode the appeal of the greenback. Traders scrambled to revise downward their expectations of an August Federal Reserve interest rate rise after data this week showed U.S. housing starts plunged to a 17-year low in May.

In late afternoon trade, the New York Board of Trade's dollar index, which tracks the dollar's performance against a basket of six currencies, was slightly lower at 73.419 after rising to 73.774 in overnight trade. U.S. short-term interest rate futures are pricing in a roughly 48 percent chance of a 25 basis points Fed rate increase in August, down from 90 percent earlier in the week.

The euro edged higher by 0.1 percent to 1.5538 after slipping earlier to 1.5463. It remained confined to a 1.5303-1.5552 range in the absence of fresh economic data. The Japanese yen was little changed versus euro after yesterday's fall to 168.05 (lowest since July 2007). The dollar was trading lower and declined to 107.72 and 1.0363 versus Japanese yen and Swiss franc respectively, tracking a fall in U.S. stocks, which were weighed down by a quarterly loss from FedEx Corp, Dow closed 131 points lower. Remarks by San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen on Wednesday also suggested the volatility in financial markets was showing signs of easing.

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark fed funds rate target at 2.0 percent next week, having cut it by 3.25 percentage points since mid-September 2007 to fend off a housing-led economic downturn.

Crude oil for July delivery rose 1.8 percent yesterday to $136.40 a barrel. The price reached a record $139.89 a barrel on June 16. The correlation of the dollar versus the euro and oil prices is minus 0.93 for the past year, indicating they move in the opposite direction 93 percent of the time.

On Wednesday, economic data releases include Japan's all industrial index, Switzerland’s trade data and SNB rate decision (08:30GMT), UK's PSNCR and retail sales data for May, Canada's CPI, and U.S. jobless claims, leading indicators and Philadelphia survey, which probably increased to -10 in June from -15.6 the previous month.

**********************************************************

from: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/daily-market-outlook/2008-06-19.v03.html

U.S. Forex Market Commentary

Wed, Jun 18 2008, 23:56 GMT
by GCI Financial Team

GCI

EURO

The euro weakened vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.5465 level and was capped around the $1.5535 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from $1.6020 to $1.5280. European Central Bank member Stark spoke today and reported “The current annual inflation rate in the euro zone of 3.7 percent in May is unacceptably high. This is cause for alarm and for heightened alertness. Given the price dynamics and the continuing, if not increased, risks to price stability, along with clear declines in real interest rates, I consider it advisable to review the appropriateness of the current level of leading interest rates.” Most traders believe the ECB will lift its main refinancing target rate by 25bps to 4.25% next month. Stark added “increasing tendencies in price and wage-setting behaviour…point to second-round effects.” The German government reported it expects economic growth in Q2 2008 to be “dampened” compared with Q1. In U.S. news, the Financial Times reported expectations for Fed rate hikes are inconsistent with Fed policymakers’ current views. Also, the Wall Street Journal reported the Fed is likely to keep rates steady until Q3 or Q4 “unless the inflation outlook deteriorates considerably.” Euro bids are cited around the $1.5230 level.

JPY / CNY

The yen depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested offers around the ¥108.40 level and was supported around the ¥107.85 level. The pair retraced some of yesterday’s losses as traders continued to speculate Bank of Japan’s Policy Board will not lift the overnight call rate target from 0.50% anytime soon. Minutes from Bank of Japan’s Policy Board meetings on 19-20 May revealed concerns over “both supply and demand shocks” to the Japanese economy. Data released in Japan overnight saw May department store sales off 2.7%, the third consecutive monthly decline. Also, the April index of leading economic indicators printed at 92.8 while the coincident index remained steady at 101.7. The Nikkei 225 stock index gained 0.73% to close at ¥14,452.82. Dollar bids are cited around the ¥103.00/ 101.35 levels. The euro came off vis-à-vis the yen as the single currency tested bids around the ¥167.00 figure and was capped around the ¥168.05 level. The British pound and Swiss franc weakened vis-à-vis the yen as the crosses tested bids around the ¥210.40 and ¥103.40 levels, respectively. The Chinese yuan appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar as the greenback closed at CNY 6.8821 in the over-the-counter market, down from CNY 6.8915 and the pair’s lowest close since the yuan revaluation of July 2005. People’s Bank of China advisor Wei Benhua reported “China needs to appropriately increase the flexibility of the exchange rate and gradually let the exchange rate be basically decided by market forces.” PBoC Governor Zhou noted “A weak dollar will inevitably result in a rise in primary products including commodities, including oil. Therefore, the RMB will also face a rising pressure, which will drive up inflation.”

STERLING

The British pound appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as cable tested offers around the US$ 1.9575 level and was supported around the $1.9475 level. Cable clawed back its earlier intraday losses as traders continued to weigh higher inflation pressures and expectations against a slowing U.K. economy. Minutes from Bank of England’s June Monetary Policy Committee meeting were released today in which rate-setters voted 8-to-1 to keep the headline repo rate unchanged at 5.0%. MPC archdove Blanchflower voted for a 25bps reduction. Policymakers acknowledged the economy may require “a somewhat greater degree of slack…to ensure inflation returned to the target.” CBI released its June industrial trends survey and it evidenced a balance of +28% of manufacturers indicating they intend to raise prices over the next three months, down from +30% in May, a thirteen-month high. Also, the orders sub-index climbed to +1 from -10 in May. Chancellor of the Exchequer Darling, who may announce a sweeping overhaul of financial industry regulation this week, cautioned against inflation from becoming “embedded” in the economy through wage deals. The market continues to scale back its expectations regarding two or three rate hikes by the end of the year. Cable bids are cited around the US$ 1.9360/ 1.9100 levels. The euro weakened vis-à-vis the British pound as the single currency tested offers around the ₤0.7950 level and was supported around the ₤0.7915 level.

SWISS

The Swiss franc appreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the greenback tested bids around the CHF 1.0390 level and was capped around the CHF 1.0465 level. Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 23.6% retracement of the move from CHF 0.9645 to CHF 1.0625. Data released in Switzerland today saw the June ZEW indicator for economic expectations decline to -63.8 from -60.4 in May while the current economic situation sub-index slipped to 53.2 from 64.6. U.S. dollar bids are cited around the CHF 1.0250 level. The euro and British pound weakened vis-à-vis the Swiss franc as the crosses tested bids around the CHF 1.6125 and CHF 2.0335 levels, respectively.

From: http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/market-view/us-forex-market-commentary/2008-06-18.html

FOREX-Dollar up on retail data, euro off on rate outlook

FOREX-Dollar up on retail data, euro off on rate outlook

(Recasts, updates prices, adds comment, byline)

* Dollar rally gathers steam, index at 3-1/2-month high

* Euro heads for biggest weekly loss vs dollar in 3 years

* ECB rate hike outlook tempered by Lagarde, Smaghi

By Steven C. Johnson

NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) - The dollar rallied broadly on Thursday after data showed a surprisingly strong gain in U.S. retail sales last month, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates this year.

The euro, meanwhile, was on track for its biggest weekly decline against the dollar in three years, buffeted by comments from officials that suggested the European Central Bank was not about to embark on an extended period of monetary tightening.

The greenback got a boost from data showing total sales at U.S. retailers rose 1 percent in May as consumers used government rebate checks to support spending at a time of high gas prices and falling housing prices. For more see [ID:nN11255522].

"The data is certainly dollar-positive," said David Powell, currency strategist at Bank of America in New York. "The report shows strength in consumer spending which is probably due to the tax rebate checks. We're seeing the fiscal stimulus coming into the economy and seeing the effect on retail sales data."

Late afternoon in New York, the euro was down 0.8 percent at $1.5421, on track for its biggest weekly loss in percentage terms since early June 2005.

The dollar hit a 3-1/2-month high versus a basket of six major currencies at 74.038 <.DXY> and added 1 percent against the Japanese currency to 107.90 yen , near a session peak of 108.08, the highest since late February.

"Despite record high crude oil prices and rising expectations of an ECB rate hike later this summer, the dollar bottom appears to have been put in with the U.S. economy recovering and the Federal Reserve preparing to raise rates itself," said Bank of New York Mellon senior currency strategist Michael Woolfolk in New York.

Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser was the latest monetary policy official to hint at the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates. On Thursday, he said current U.S. monetary policy was supportive for growth but the Fed needs to stay vigilant in keeping inflation expectations contained.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke last week linked the weak dollar to import price inflation, sparking expectations that benchmark rates could rise from the current 2 percent this year.

ECB CONTRAST

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet last week also opened the door to a July rate hike, but policymakers since then have reiterated his message that this would not be the start of a big monetary policy tightening campaign.

French economy minister Christine Lagarde on Thursday went one step further, saying that the ECB may even reconsider the July move after this weekend's G8 meeting [ID:nPAB004122].

ECB Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said on Thursday the bank will do what is needed to lower inflation but it has given indications on policy moves only as far as July.

Adding pressure on the euro was news of a potential $46.3 billion outflow from euros to dollars as Belgium's InBev -- the world's largest brewer by volume -- launched a bid for Anheuser-Busch , the U.S. maker of Budweiser and Michelob [ID:nL12592065].

"The announcement that InBev NV has offered $46.3 billion for Anheuser-Busch Cos weighed on euro/dollar overnight," said RBC Capital Markets in a research note to clients.

Although the dollar was cashing in on reduced ECB rate hike expectations, some analysts said markets' Fed expectations were also looking overdone with the possibility of three rate hikes priced in by year-end .

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=579407

Dollar rises against euro as US retail figures improve

Dollar rises against euro as US retail figures improve
June 12, 2008 - 1:06 p.m.

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) - The euro lost ground against the dollar Thursday after the U.S. Commerce Department reported a jump in retail sales, helped by an economic stimulus package.

The euro bought $1.5407 in afternoon European trading, down from its level of $1.5571 in New York late Wednesday.

The dollar rose to 108.02 Japanese yen from 106.93, while the British pound fell to $1.9455 from $1.9631.

The Commerce Department reported that retail sales jumped by 1 percent last month, the biggest increase since November.

The May increase was double what economists had been expecting and indicated that the economy is getting a boost from the $50 million in economic stimulus payments the government sent to Americans in May.

The U.S. administration is hoping the stimulus payments will help avert a deep recession. Still, other data Thursday were gloomier.

The Labor Department reported that new applications for jobless benefits rose by 25,000 last week to 384,000, the highest level since late March. It was a much bigger increase than analysts had been expecting.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which provides readings on the U.S. economy by region, indicated that Americans are feeling the pinch of rising energy and food costs and said the economy remains "generally weak

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/markets/market_news/article.jsp?content=D918LGK81

Trade #061

Trade #061

BUY - USD / JPY(H1)

Entry = 99.21

Exited = 100.00

Result = + 80 pips

Total = 3600 pips (61 trades)

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=64768&page=11

Trade #060

SELL - GBP/JPY (H1)

Entry = 2.0020

Exit = 1.9870

Result = + 150 pips

Total = 3520 pips ( 60 trades)

Trade #059

Trade #059

SELL GBP/JPY (H4)

Entry = 205.25

Exit = 204.10

Result = 115 pips

Total = 3770 pips ( 59 trades)

Trade #058

GBP/JPY (H4)

SELL

Entry = 204.75

Exit - 204.30

Total = 3655 pips (58 trades)

Trade #057

Trade #057

SELL - GBP/JPY (H1)

Entry = 206.26

Exit = 204.26

Total = 3610 pips (57 trades)

See more here

Yen Drops Against Dollar And Pound

(RTTNews) - The Japanese currency saw weakness against the dollar and pound on Thursday in New York, hitting short-term lows against each counterpart. The yen was slightly higher against the euro and franc.

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry reported that overall retail sales in Japan inched up 0.1% year-on-year in April. That marked the ninth straight month of increase, but it came in well below analyst expectations that called for a 0.6% annual increase. It was also lower than the revised 1% year-on-year expansion in the previous month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales eased 0.1% annually, below expectations for a flat reading and down from the revised 0.4% year-on-year increase in March.

Elsewhere, the Ministry of Finance stated that Japanese investors purchased a net 476.5 billion yen in foreign bonds in the week ended May 23, up from 290.2 billion yen in the previous week.

The yen slipped to a three-month low against the greenback. The Japanese currency touched as low as 105.86 before edging back to 105.53 in the mid-afternoon.

The Japanese currency was modestly higher in choppy trading against the euro, which dropped against other majors as well. The pair moved at 163.58 in the mid-afternoon.

The yen moved to its lowest level in nearly four weeks against the British pound. The pair moved at 208.33 in the mid-afternoon after the Japanese currency earlier touched as low as 208.95. Against the Swiss franc, the yen was higher at 100.50.

See more news

GDP, Fed's Tough Talk on Inflation Boost Dollar

This week has so far been a good one for the US dollar - the US currency rallied higher against other currencies like the Euro, Swiss franc, British pound and Japanese yen after the positive US GDP data that met expectations, following Wednesday’s better-than-expected durable goods orders.

The government said today that US gross domestic product, a measure of goods and services produced, rose at a seasonally adjusted 0.9% annual rate in the first quarter, which was slightly higher than the first estimate of 0.6% growth in the first quarter. It’s a little irrelevant to still debate whether the US was “really” in a recession from January to March even though the GDP number shows borderline growth as we are already more than half into the second quarter. The biggest drag on the US economy is the fall in consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of GDP. A huge chunk of the overall GDP - about 1.17 percentage points - was cut by the 25.2% drop in residential fixed investment.

Higher Rates In US Soon?

The US dollar also got a boost from Dallas Fed’s Richard Fisher who hinted that the Fed might raise interest rates “sooner rather than later”. He said that if inflation and inflation expectations keep getting worse, that he would “expect a change of course in monetary policy to occur sooner rather than later, even in the face of an anemic economic scenario”.

Fisher, a voting member of the FOMC, is the only member to dissent three times from decisions to cut the Fed funds rate, preferring no change. Yesterday Minneapolis Fed’s Gary Stern said that inflation is too high and the Fed will need to consider the timing and magnitude of any reversal in interest rate cuts.

UK Home Prices Fall Again

Nationwide reported that UK house prices fell 2.5% month-on-month in May, worse than the 0.5% decline expected, and that is the largest monthly decline ever, since record-keeping began in January 1991. May’s drop in home prices was the 7th straight month of declines, which was the longest consecutive period of monthly falls since 1992.

Forex Trading

EUR/USD broke out below 1.5600 to reach an intraday low around 1.5520. Downside targets are possibly 1.5480-90, then 1.5430. USD/CHF rallied for the third day in a row and hit a high around 1.0480 and next topside targets are around 1.0530, 1.0570-90. GBP/USD fell further today to to 1.9670 on weak housing data from the UK.

Friday:

German retail sales 0600 GMT

Italy CPI, Eurozone CPI, Eurozone unemployment rate 0900 GMT

Canada GDP 1230 GMT

US PCE core, personal spending 1230 GMT

More Here

13 Asian nations agree to set up $80-B crisis fund

13 Asian nations agree to set up $80-B crisis fund

Agence France Presse

MADRID - Finance ministers of 13 Asian nations agreed here on Sunday to set up a foreign exchange pool of at least 80 billion dollars (52 billion euros) to be used in the event of another regional financial crisis.

China, Japan and South Korea will provide 80 percent of the funds, with the rest coming from the 10 members of ASEAN, they said in a joint statement issued after talks on the sidelines of an Asian Development Bank meeting in Madrid.

The 13 nations agreed after the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis to set up a mainly bilateral currency swap scheme known as the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) to protect their currencies from turmoil in the future.

At the ADB's last annual meeting in Japan in May 2007, they decided to set aside part of their foreign reserves for a multi-nation system of reserves for use in emergencies, but did not decide on the size of the pool.

"We are committed to further accelerate our work in order to reach consensus on all of the elements which include concrete conditions eligible for borrowing and contents of convenants specified in borrowing arrangements," the statement said.

The foreign exchange pool would be self-managed and be governed by a single contract that will be legally binding, it added.

Vietnam's Finance Minister Vu Van Ninh, who co-chaired the Madrid meeting, said the 13 nations would now work to develop a way of monitoring the fund.

"We think it is very important to have a rigorous surveillance system, especially in the context that regional economies have made an important and big integration into the world economy," he told reporters.

Japanese Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga, the other meeting co-chair, did not give a timeline for the the creation of the fund when asked, saying only that it "should be achievable in terms of its objectives."

The creation of the pool is a big step towards the creation af an Asian equivalent of the Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF).

During the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis Indonesia, Thailand and South Korea had to borrow heavily from the IMF to boost their finances as investors sold their currencies.

The IMF forced the governments of the three nations to make unpopular spending cuts, sell state-owned firms and raise interest rates in exchange for the loans of over 100 billion dollars.

Asian economies are being challenged by rising energy and commodity prices as well as the vulnerability of financial markets, the finance ministers said in the statement.

"The regional economy has continued its strong growth and is forecast to remain robust although somewhat weaker," it said.

"We confirmed the importance of taking appropriate actions to ensure that economic activity continues at a sustained pace by balancing policies to deal with these risks," it added.

The ADB predicts Asia's developing economies will expand by 7.6 percent in 2008, its lowest level in five years, after surging ahead 8.7 percent last year.

Inflation in the region should hit 5.1 percent this year, its highest level since the 1997-1998 financial crisis.

The 13 countries are China, Japan, South Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), made up of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

From: http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryId=117144

Trade #058

Trade #058

other SELL...

Now GBP/JPY (H4)

Entry = 204.75

Exit - 204.30

Total = 3655 pips (58 trades)

Asian nations agree to currency swap

Asian nations agree to currency swap

East Asian finance ministers have agreed to upgrade to an $US80 billion ($A85.87 billion)currency swap scheme to fight regional financial crises, a deal taking them a step closer to creating a full scale Asian monetary fund.

"Member economies welcomed the initiative to promote multilateralism," Japan's Finance Minister Fukushiro Nukaga told reporters after a three-hour meeting to hammer out the broad terms of the deal with his counterparts from 12 Asian economies comprising the so-called ASEAN+3 group.

The deal - more than a year in the making - will replace the existing arrangement of mainly bilateral currency swaps, called the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) and transform it into a more powerful self-managed reserve pooling mechanism governed by a legally binding single contract.

Vietnam's Finance Minister Vu Van Ninh, who co-chaired the ASEAN+3 meeting with Nukaga, said the agreement had been secured at a crucial time.

"There are outstanding risks to the global economy including the financial market turmoil and inflationary pressures from food and energy. To overcome these risks, mutual support in this region is extremely important," he told reporters.

The deal essentially gives to any of the signatory economies access to a foreign exchange reserves pool of at least $US80 billion ($A85.87 billion) in the event of a financial emergency.

The talks, which took place on the sidelines of the Asian Development Bank's annual meeting in Madrid, saw Japan, China and South Korea agree to provide 80 per cent of the total, ASEAN countries the balance.

Officials said loans will be made in US dollars against local currency collateral provided by the borrowing nation, either via a currency swap or a promissory note.

Loans will cost between 150 and 300 basis points above the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) and be provided for three months, renewable for up to two years. Borrowing costs will be reviewed every five years.

Finance officials say the agreement will be a significant step forward for the 13 nations involved in the bilateral swap deals that were created in the wake of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, taking them closer to a full scale regional equivalent to the International Monetary Fund.

"This will play a role of supplementing existing international financial stability schemes," South Korea's Deputy Finance Minister Shin Je-yoon told reporters earlier in the day after a meeting of finance chiefs from Japan, China and South Korea.

"This will show to the world that Asia is making a concerted push about securing financial stability."

The finance ministers said they were determined to work together to secure financial stability in Asia and would create a forum in which to discuss policies required to do so.

Calls for an Asian monetary fund were made during the depths of the Asian financial crisis when IMF-led bailouts worth around $US100 billion ($A107.34 billion) came attached with conditions for unpopular austerity programs and economic reforms.

But Naoyuki Shinohara, Japan's vice finance minister for international affairs, said ahead of the ADB meeting that any deal agreed would not be about creating easy money.

"We don't want it to be a mechanism to give out easy money," Shinohara said. "The most important issue is how to strengthen surveillance," he added.

Complicated factors remain to be negotiated, such as how to activate currency swaps while making sure borrowing countries would return the money after a crisis ends.

Japan's Nukaga said it would take a further year for the scheme's final framework to be agreed before the multilateral pool could be activated and accessed by its


From: http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=457306

other SELL...

Trade #057

SELL - GBP/JPY (H1)

Entry = 206.26

Exit = 204.26

Total = 3610 pips (57 trades)

FOREX-Dollar underpinned by Fed view, yen pressured

SYDNEY, May 5 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar was a shade softer on Monday but held on to of most of last week's gains, supported by speculation the Federal Reserve will not need to cut interest rates again.

The euro had drifted to $1.5432 in early Asian trade, not far from Friday's late $1.5424 and well off April's record highs around $1.6018.

The yen remained weak as returning risk appetite encouraged borrowing yen at low rates to invest in high yielding currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars. One dollar bought 105.34 yen, far above the March trough of 95.71.

Activity was light with markets in Tokyo and London off for holidays and traders now waiting to see if a survey on the U.S. services sector later in the session proves as resilient as other recent figures.

The dollar firmed on Friday after U.S. payrolls fell by a surprisingly small 20,000 in April, while the jobless rate actually dipped to 5.0 percent.

"The drop in the unemployment rate has strengthened the market's conviction that the Fed is done," said Darren Gibbs, an economist at Deutsche Bank.

"For the first time this year near-ahead Fed funds expectations are flat with the actual Fed funds rate," he added. "What's more, the market is pricing a decent chance of a rate hike by the end of the year."

However, he suspected the April payrolls reported overstated the true health of the labour market and expected a big negative swing in May. If correct, that meant the market was premature in pricing out the chance of further easing. Still, the next payrolls report was a month away and this week was relatively light for major U.S. economic data, leaving the dollar's recent uptrend intact for now.

The New York Board of Trade's dollar index, which charts the dollar's performance against a basket of six currencies, was steady at 73.456 on Monday, having hit two-month peaks at 73.698 .DXY last week.

From: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSSYD1979520080504?rpc=401&

Trade #056

Trade #056

SELL - EUR/JPY (H4)

Entry = 157.80

Result = + 80 pips

Total = 3410 pips (56 trdes)

Thanks Skyson !!!

Dollar gains ahead of US jobs data

Dollar gains ahead of US jobs data
Friday, April 04 07:38:05

(BizWorld)

The dollar gained against major currencies in overnight trade in Asia, as investors braced themselves for US jobs data later today.

In Singapore this morning, the euro was at USD 1.5653, down from USD 1.5662 in Sydney earlier.
The dollar was trading at 102.62 yen, up from 102.32 yen in Sydney this morning.


'The U.S. payrolls have kept many investors sidelined, exaggerating volatility in the last two sessions -- we expect tight ranges in Asia ahead of the data,' said Andrew Spencer at Thomson IFR.

Market consensus forecasts are for a 50,000 drop in non-farm jobs and a 5 percent unemployment rate compared with February's 63,000 job losses and a 4.8 percent unemployment rate.

Weekly U.S. jobless claims surging to a two-and-a-half year high of 407,000 suggest the job losses will be greater than expected, but there is a chance the actual job losses might be lower than expected given the mixed data that came out of the U.S. this week, said Tim Condon, a currency strategist at ING Financial Markets in Singapore.

Still, Condon said investors are reluctant to swing the dollar either way until the jobs data are out.

The dollar has bounced off lows in recent weeks as investor confidence gradually returned to financial markets after the rescue of Bear Stearns and recapitalization efforts at other global investment banks like UBS and Lehman Brothers, he said.

'The Fed seems to have removed the panicking in the financial markets,' Condon said.

But investor focus shifted back to monitoring economic data releases, making them reluctant to push the dollar higher until positive indicators emerge from the United States, he said.

Spencer at Thomson IFR said the dollar will continue to struggle against the euro.

'Downside progress (for the euro) will always be tough, as reserve diversification is ongoing and the U.S. economy remains soft,' he said.

Spencer said Japanese demand for offshore investments has kept the yen soft this week and will continue as long as the equity markets are stable.

This morning the euro was making

USD 1.5653 Yen 160.62 Sfr 1.5851 £ 0.7847

Copyright: Thomson Financial

Frombusinessworld.ie

Trade #055

BUY - GBP/USD (H1)

Entry = 1.9934

Exit = 1.9964

Total = + 30 pips

Result = + 3330 pips (55 trades)

Thanks God !!!

Trade #054

Trade #054

Buy...
GBP/USD (H1)

Open = 1.9705

Exit #054

Close = 1.9885

Result = + 180 pips

Total = + 3330 (54 trades)

Greeeeaaaaaaatt SKYSON !!!!!!!!!

THANKS GOD !!!!

See my live journal: Here

Trade #053

Entry...

BUY - EUR/USD (H1)

Open = 1.4865....

Closed = 1.5190

Result= + 325 Pips

Total = + 3120 pips (53 trades)

My live journal : Here

Trade #052

Trade #052

BUY - USD/JPY (H1)

Entry = 108.00

Exit = 108.20

Result = + 20

Total = +2795 (52 trades)

Thanks God !!!

See my live journal: Here

Trade #051

Trade # 051

BUY - EUR/USD (H1)

Entry = 1.4703

Exit = 1.4730

Result = + 27 pips

Total = + 2775 (51 trades)

Thanks GOD !!!

My live journal: Here

Trade #050

Trade #050 - Entry

BUY - EUR/USD (H1)

Entry = 1.4545

Close = 1.4575

Result = + 30 pips

Total = + 2748 pips (50 trades)

Trade #049

Trade #049

BUY - EUR/JPY (H1)

Entry = 155.65

Exit = 156.25

Result = + 60 pips

Total = + 2718 pips (49 trades)

Thanks Skyson ... Thanks God !!!

Trade #048

Trade #048

BUY - GBP/JPY (H1)

Entry = 208.62

Exit = 209.42

Result = + 80 pips

Total = + 2658 pips (48 trades)

See my live journal:
Here

Trade #047

Trade #047 - entry

SELL - EUR/USD (H1)

Entry = 1.4510

Exit = 1.4501

Profit = 9 pips

Total = + 2578 pips (47 trades)

Trade #046

Trade #046

SELL - EUR/JPY (H1)

Entry = 157.95

Exit = 156.70

Result = + 125 pips

Total = + 2569 pips (46 trades)

Marvelous day

Thanks God

See my live journal: Here

Trade #045

SELL -GBP/USD (H1)

Entry = 1.9700

Exit = 1.9670

Result = +30 pips

Total = +2444 pips (46 trades)

Thanks God !!! Thanks Skyson !!

See my live journal:Here

Trade #044

Trade #044 - entry

SELL - EUR/USD (H1)

Entry = 1.4815

Exit = 1.4670

result = + 145 pips

Total = 2414 pips

See my live journal : Here

Trade #043

Trade #043 - entry:

BUY - EUR/JPY (H4)

Entry = 158.19

Trade #043 - exit

Exit = 158.53

Result = + 34 pips

Total = + 2269 pips (43 trades)

Thanks God, thanks skyson, thanks all

Trade #042

Trade #042

SELL -- EUR/JPY (H4)

Entry = 157.52

Exit = 157.52

Result = 0 pips

Total = + 2235 pips (42 trades)

See my live journal : here

Trade #041

Trade # 041

SELL - GBP/USD(H1)

Entry = 1.9795

Exit = 1.9670

Profit = + 125 pips

Total = + 2235 pips (41 trades)

See my live journal : Here

Trade #040

Trade #040

SELL -- GBP/JPY(H1)

Entry = 209.63

Exit = 209.43

Profit = + 20 pips

Total = + 2110 pips (40 trades)

My live journal here

Trade #039

Trade #039

BUY - GBP/USD(H1)

Entry = 1.9930

exit = 1.9845

Profit = + 15 pips

Total = 2090 (39 trades)

Thanks God ....


See my live journal :
Here

Trade #038

Trade #038

BUY - USD/JPY (H1)

Entry = 106.96

Exit = 107.30

Profit = + 34 pips

Total = + 2075 pips (38 trades)

Thanks God

See my real time live journal: here

G7 gives China nod on yuan as Europe keeps up pressure

G7 gives China nod on yuan as Europe keeps up pressure
Sat Feb 9, 2008 3:01pm GMT

TOKYO (Reuters) - Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers gave China a slight nod on its efforts to unshackle the yuan and allow more appreciation, even as European officials kept up their pressure on Beijing for more action.

The final communique from the G7's Tokyo meeting on Saturday said "we encourage" the need for greater appreciation of the yuan, a slight softening from "we stress" in the communique from the last gathering in October.

The tweak in language comes as China has the let the yuan rise at a quicker pace against the dollar and the euro, especially after European officials made a visit to Beijing late last year and pressed the case for a broader rise in the Chinese currency.

But Europe also remained steadfast in its calls for China to keep allowing the yuan to strengthen while expressing worries about the single currency's elevated level against the dollar and other major currencies.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said after the meeting that the message on the yuan is very clear: "We welcome and we encourage it to accelerate."

ECB Governing Council member Axel Weber said China should allow currency flexibility not just against the dollar but also against other major currencies.

European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said the euro's broad trade-weighted value "has reached a level we can consider is above equilibrium level."

The yuan has been a hot-button issue for G7 powers over the past years who believe Beijing's tight management of the currency keeps it unfairly weak, giving China a trade advantage while contributing to global economic imbalances.

Those imbalances in China have been highlighted by its burgeoning trade surplus with the United States and Europe, as well as its swelling foreign reserves that at more than $1.5 trillion (770 billion pounds) are by far the biggest in the world.

But the yuan faded from the focus of this meeting as a response to the financial market turmoil and potential for a broadening global economic slowdown from the U.S. housing market's collapse took centre stage.

In his post-meeting press conference, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson didn't field a single question on currencies.

The G7's stance on China and exchange rates has been an evolving one. Initially, the G7 statement referred to countries with large trade surpluses, such as those in Asia, allowing greater exchange rate flexibility.

In July 2005, China finally dropped the yuan's peg to the dollar and allowed it to move in a tight band against a basket of currencies.

The yuan's glacial rise against the dollar at the beginning gradually accelerated, and the currency climbed 3.4 percent in 2006 and then nearly 7 percent last year.

The G7 acknowledged these steps, but in 2006 the G7 took investors and analysts by surprise by attaching an annex to its communique on global imbalances.



Read More Here

Trade #037

Trade #037

Buy - EUR/JPY (H1)

Entry = 158.22

Exit = 158.35

Total = + 2041 pips (37 trades)


See my live journal : here

Trade #036

Trade #036

BUY - EUR/USD (H1)

Entry = 1.4783

Exit = 1.4808

My journal: here

Northern Rock-style crisis 'would cause chaos in Eurozone'

Northern Rock-style crisis 'would cause chaos in Eurozone'

By Edmund Conway and Katherine Griffiths
Last Updated: 1:22am GMT 07/02/2008


A Northern Rock-style disaster would cause "chaos" if it happened in the Eurozone, the European Commissioner for Internal Markets admitted last night.

In a speech to the Society of Business Economists, Charlie McCreevy warned that with 44 financial regulatory institutions on the Continent it was almost impossible to conceive of how they would unite to combat a potential Europe-wide bank run.


Responding to a question from economist Tim Congdon about what would have happened had Northern Rock been based in the Eurozone, he said: "The reality is we would be in a mess. There would be chaos. There are 44 regulatory institutions and we have to find some modus operandi to get them together, because as sure as night follows day there will soon be a crisis we all have to deal with."

While not in favour of a single regulator, Mr McCreevy said the Eurozone needed a lead institution.

The admission came as the UK regulator said it was reviewing its practices in light of the Northern Rock crisis.

The Financial Services Authority (FSA) said it was considering whether it can improve its supervision of companies and reviewing the way it analyses a company's liquidity.

The FSA unveiled the exercise as it published its business plan for 2008. It said spending would increase by 7pc to £323m this year, as it faces increased uncertainty about the economic outlook and a need to beef up supervision in certain areas.

Almost all of the budget increase will be met by bigger contributions to the regulator from individual companies.

Politicians attacked the FSA in the wake of the Northern Rock crisis for its failure to put the brakes on the bank, which relied on wholesale debt markets for 75pc its funding.

Yesterday, Hector Sants, the FSA's chief executive, said: "The outcome of the follow-up initiatives arising from the various reviews of Northern Rock is likely to cause us to reassess our priorities."

Mr Sants said he had commissioned a "lessons learned" review of the FSA's approach to supervision. The results will be published in March. The FSA is also co-operating with the Bank of England to consider the UK's approach to assessing liquidity, Mr Sants added.

"We are conscious that the coming year presents more difficulties and uncertainties than we have faced in recent times," he said.

The regulator said it is also working with the other members of the Tripartite Authorities - the Treasury and the Bank - to review the way they respond to an emergency situation such as the Northern Rock debacle.

The FSA said firms needed to have a comprehensive view of all the possible demands on liquidity that could arise from various sources and develop plans to meet those demands. They should also maintain an emergency supply of cash.


Source:Telegraph.co.uk

Trade #035

BUY - EUR/JPY (H1)

Entry = 157.76

Exit = 158.13

Profit = 37 pips

Total = + 2003 pips (35 trades)

Live Trade Journal: journal Here

Dollar Charges Ahead Versus Euro And Sterling Despite Grim Outlook For US Economy

(RTTNews) - The dollar gained on the euro and sterling but gave back its early gains versus the yen on Tuesday in New York. Markets worldwide were roiled when US data from the Institute of Supply Management revealed that activity in the service sector unexpectedly contracted for the first time since March of 2003.

The ISM said that its index of activity in service sector fell to 41.9 in January from a revised 54.4 in December, with a reading below 50 indicating contraction in the sector. Economists had expected the index to edge down to 53.9. The data prompted many analysts to predict that the US economy was entering a prolonged period of recession.

The dollar raced higher versus the euro on Tuesday, jumping almost 2 cents to 1.4622. Euro-zone retail sales edged down 0.1% in December compared to a 0.5% fall in November. Economists were looking for an increase of 0.2%.

The dollar hit a 2-week high versus the sterling on Tuesday, extending Friday's significant gains. The greenback rose to 1.9603, up more than a cent from its overnight levels.

Versus the yen, the dollar advanced to a 10-day high of 107.73 before racing lower on risk aversion after the ISM data. The dollar fetched 107 at 3 pm ET, having come off its mid-day low near 106.70.

Source: Nasdaq.com

Dollar Adds To Early Gains Versus Sterling

Dollar Adds To Early Gains Versus Sterling

(RTTNews) - The dollar extended its early gains against the sterling Tuesday afternoon in New York, rising to 1.9609 from an overnight level near 1.97. With the advance, the dollar moved further away from last week's monthly low of 1.9957.


Source: Nasdaq.com

Trade #034

Trade #034

BUY - EUR/USD (H1)

Entry = 1.4727

Exit = 1.4770

Profit = 43 pips

Total = + 1966 pips

Great Day !!!!!!!!!

Lests go Skyson !!!!!!!!!!

Live Journal Here

UK Darling: Must Resist Heavy-Handed Financial Regulation

Mon, Feb 4 2008, 19:31 GMT

http://www.djnewswires.com/eu


UK Darling: Must Resist Heavy-Handed Financial Regulation

LONDON -(Dow Jones)- The U.K. will resist any disproportionate reaction to the recent troubles in financial markets, Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said Monday.

The troubles at U.K. mortgage lender Northern Rock (NRK.LN) and elsewhere have "meant that the regulatory system has been under intense scrutiny over recent months here and throughout the world," Darling said in a speech to a banking group.

"To revert to more heavy-handed or mechanistic regulation, to put process before substance would not fulfill our objectives and would stifle innovation. So we will not let that happen," he added.

Darling said that despite the recent financial market turmoil, the U.K. economy remains "strong and stable."

He also said that the government's policies mean the U.K. has low debt and historically low interest rates.

"We are able to do what is right to support growth in these uncertain times," he said.

Source: Fxstreet.com

World Bank cuts China growth forecast

World Bank cuts China growth forecast

By JOE McDONALD -- AP Business Writer

Published: Monday, February 4, 2008

BEIJING (AP) The World Bank cut its 2008 economic growth forecast for China to 9.6 percent from 10.8 percent on Monday due to cooling global export demand and said storms battering southern China should have little long-term impact.
Growth should be buoyed by expected strong demand from China's own consumers, though a possible U.S. slowdown might hurt the country's large export sector, the bank said in a quarterly report.

Economists have slashed forecasts for China's fast-growing economy amid worries that a U.S. recession could cut American imports and hurt other Chinese markets such as Europe and Japan.

"The world economy is going to be weaker, and this will have an impact on China," said Louis Kuijs, a bank economist who was the report's chief author. Still, he said, "China is in a relatively strong position."

Growth of 9.6 percent was "still robust," Kuijs said.

Snowstorms that have wrecked crops and disrupted trains and trucking in southern China will hurt industrial output and push up prices of vegetables and other perishable goods, but there should be little long-term effect, the bank said. The government has reported storm damage so far at 53.8 billion yuan ($7.5 billion).
"There is no doubt it is going to affect industrial production and economic activity in the short term," Kuijs said. "We do think, though, that most of this impact is going to be temporary."

The slowdown in global demand will hurt China's manufacturers and exporters, Kuijs said. The government says exports rose 25.7 percent in 2007 to $1.2 trillion.
But Chinese consumer spending and corporate profits are "still strong" and Beijing is moving ahead with investment plans that should help to shore up growth, Kuijs said.

The bank warned that China still faces potential problems as it tries to manage rapid growth, control a surge in inflation and cope with a flood of export revenues that are straining the central bank's ability to contain pressure for prices to rise.
Inflation so far is limited to food, but if it continues, "the risk remains that it will be fed through into general inflation," Kuijs said.

The central bank has raised interest rates repeatedly over the past year, and Kuijs said regulators were right to focus on such a "relatively tight" monetary stance.
Beijing has responded to the surge in food costs by imposing price controls and trying to increase supplies by boosting subsidies to pig farmers and curbing grain exports.

David Dollar, director of the World Bank's Beijing office, said such controls could help in the short run. But he echoed warnings by other economists who say they could hurt the economy by eliminating incentives to expand output.

If pork or grain prices are set below what it costs farmers to produce them, "then you are discouraging production of exactly what is in short supply," he said.
Dollar said that over time, Beijing might consider easing controls and instead paying food subsidies to poor families.

Chinese regulators also could face challenges if the United States responds to an economic slowdown by cutting interest rates further, Kuijs said. That could make China, with higher rates, more attractive to foreign investors, attracting more money at a time when Beijing is trying to curb the export-driven flood of cash pouring through the economy.

Links by inform.com
From : Pressofatlanticcity.cim

Trade #033

BUY- GBP/USD (H1)

Entry = 1.9826
Exit = 1.9856

Profit = 30 pips

Total = + 1923 pips (33 trades)

Dollar Will Likely Fall Further Before Rising in 2008

Dollar Will Likely Fall Further Before Rising in 2008

We remain comfortable with the view that EUR/USD will end the year significantly lower than it is now, though in the near term the dollar may not rally. We have centred our call on a bounce in the dollar against the EUR and the GBP this year on the thesis that risk-aversion would spike so high as the US falls into a recession that fear-motivated bond flows would perversely support the dollar, just as they did in 2000-01. This thesis has partly worked so far this year, as the sharp erosion in the USD’s yield premium should have been extremely damaging for the dollar but the dollar has not collapsed with the FFR. We still feel comfortable with the ‘Dollar Smile’ framework.
Written by Stephen Roach, Head Economist, Morgan Stanley

Source: http://www.dailyfx.com/story/other/free_third_party_research/Dollar_Will_Likely_Fall_Further_1202143349612.html?engine=rss&keyword=article

Trade # 032

Trade #032

BUY - GBP/USD (H1)

Entry = 1.9585

Exit = 1.9620

Profit = 35 pips

Total = + 1893 pips (32 trades)

Real Time Journal = http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=64768

England, Wales corporate insolvencies down 7.3 pct in 2007 vs 2006

LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Corporate insolvencies in England and Wales fell by 7.3 pct in 2007 compared with 2006, despite the effects of the credit crunch during the last few months of the year, figures from PricewaterhouseCoopers showed.


A total of 11,147 businesses across England and Wales entered into insolvency last year, against 12,031 in 2006.


Mike Jervis, partner in the Business Recovery Services practice at PricewaterhouseCoopers attributed the improvement to "the growing sophistication amongst management teams of distressed businesses and other stakeholders and the fact that techniques to avert insolvency are now very well developed".


"Businesses, banks and their advisers now have a track record of spotting problems early and acting quickly to put in place financial and operational restructurings," he said.


However, he said 2008 could be a different story as companies face the problems associated with the credit crunch, slower economic growth, and reduced consumer spending power.


"While the UK economy has shown resilience over the last twelve months, there remain substantial risks going forward... this is not the right moment to relax," he said.


The details of the release revealed some differing trends across sectors. While manufacturing and retail insolvencies fell by 14.8 pct and 6.4 pct respectively over 2007, insolvencies in the hospitality and leisure sector jumped by 22 pct.


Jervis said the troubles in the hospitality and leisure sector have been largely due to the smoking ban, increased competition from supermarkets, rising costs and a general slowdown in consumer expenditure. These insolvencies, however, have "tended to be at the smaller end of this market", he said.

Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=638d0b9f-f013-43d7-a948-ad866a0d55f8

Forex - US dollar mixed Sydney morning; euro up strong data, hawkish talk

SYDNEY (Thomson Financial) - The US dollar was trading mixed against major currencies on Friday morning in Sydney, caught between strong European data and increased risk appetite which has seen the greenback rise against the yen as carry traders return to the market.

The possibility of a further rate cut by the Federal Reserve on January 30 on top of this week's surprise three-quarter percentage point cut is giving support to the euro, along with a stronger than expected German IFO survey and hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials.

At 9.45 am (2245 GMT), the dollar was up at 107.18 yen from 106.85 in late New York trade while the euro had risen to 1.4756 dollars from 1.4745 in late New York trade.

"The market had been pricing in a rate cut by the ECB but hawkish comments by ECB officials makes it clear they're worried about inflation so that that's giving support to the euro," said Sally Auld, a senior currency strategist at ANZ Investment Bank.

ECB council member Axel Weber took a dismissive tone on a euro-zone rate cut Thursday, compounding ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's statement on Wednesday, which suggested he was sticking with his anti-inflation stance and would not follow the Fed in cutting rates.

Auld said the comments served to highlight the widening interest rate differential between the US and the euro-zone.

She said the yen is losing some support as equity markets around the world start to recover from steep losses seen at the start of the week.

"The yen is the currency of choice when there's uncertainty so it's a touch weaker against the dollar though broadly steady," Auld said.

She said there's also more interest in carry trades to the benefit of the Australian dollar, which has moved above 94 yen from around 90 yen earlier in the week.

John Noonan at Thomson IFR said the world's financial markets have radically changed since the start of the week when "doom and gloom" dominated all markets.

He said the emergency three-quarter percentage point Fed rate cut proved to be a circuit breaker for the ailing equity markets.

That move has been backed up with what are perceived to be genuine efforts from US lawmakers to deal with the specific problems facing the US economy such as consumer spending, mortgage stress and the prospect of more downgrades of bond insurers.

"While these efforts may not head off a US recession they may ensure that a US slowdown will be shallow and short-lived and not put a severe dent into the global growth outlook," Noonan said.

For foreign exchange markets, Noonan said that means more risk appetite which, along with improving commodity prices, is giving support to the Australian dollar.

"If this more buoyant mood continues to prevail it would provide enormous support for the Australian dollar," Noonan said.

Trade #031 - exit

Exit = 105.28

Total = + 70 pips

Profit Total = 1858 pips (31 trades).

Pound Mixed Againts Major

(RTTNews) - In early deals on Wednesday, the British pound strengthened against the euro but it trended down against the rest of majors. Investors considered UK's fourth quarter GDP data and minutes of the Bank of England's recent MPC meeting. The sterling strengthened against its European counterpart amid the across the board weakening of the latter.

Latest report from the UK national statistical office showed that the British economy grew at a slower pace of 2.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, compared to 3.3% in the third quarter. Sequentially, the growth rate stood at 0.6% in the fourth quarter, slightly down from 0.7% recorded in third quarter, the lowest growth rate since the third quarter of 2006. But the economy grew more than analyst's prediction of 0.5%.

Also, BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to hold the key interest rate at 5.5%, data released at 4:30 am ET showed. David Blanchflower voted against, preferring a reduction of 25 basis points. The MPC kept rates on hold this month after voting unanimously for a cut in December.

The Bank of England Governor Mervyn king said yesterday that rising food prices, energy and imports may force him to write more than one letter of explanation to the Chancellor, as the consumer prices hit 2.1% above the central bank's target rate of 2.0%. Governor of the British central bank has only written one such letter - in April last year - since the institution gained independence in 1997.

The US Federal Reserve unexpectedly lowered the interest rates by 75 basis points to 3.5% yesterday. The surprise rate cut was part of a broad effort to stop the economy from slipping into a clear recession.

The British pound fell to 1.9534 against the US dollar at about 6:05 am ET, Wednesday. The pound-dollar pair was worth 1.9611 at yesterday's close.

In the Asian deals on Wednesday, the British pound declined against the Japanese Yen. The pair added to its losses during the European session and touched 206.96 at 6:00 am Eastern Time, down from 208.76 late Tuesday in New York.

The pound equaled a 1-week low of 2.1373 against its Swiss counterpart at about 11:40 pm ET, Tuesday. The pound started moving higher thereafter, but slipped after hitting a high of 2.1529 at about 3:25 am ET. Currently, the pair is trading near 2.1387.

The UK's sterling weakened to 0.7485 against the euro at about 1:45 am ET, Wednesday. However, the sterling traded higher thereafter and reached 0.7443 against the euro at about 4:40 am ET. The pound that closed yesterday's trading against the common currency at 0.7463 is now worth 0.7454.

For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com

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Trade #031 - entry

My Trade #031

SELL -- USD/JPY (H1)

Entry = 105.98

1° Target = 105.82 :)

Forex - Dollar higher against euro, sterling amid fears US recession will spread

(AFX UK Focus) 2008-01-21 23:33 GMT:

SYDNEY (Thomson Financial) - The US dollar extended gains against the euro and sterling but fell further against the yen midway through the morning session in Sydney on Tuesday after European shares plunged on US recession fears, prompting investors to reverse their positions in the euro and move into safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc.

All the major markets in Europe lost between 5 and 7 percent overnight as Euro group president Jean-Claude Juncker conceded a US recession can no longer be ruled out.

With US markets closed for the Martin Luther King public holiday, investors used the precipitous decline of Asian markets to guide them.

The sell-off in European shares is bad news for the euro, which could come under further pressure if the turmoil in financial and credit markets continues, said John Noonan, an analyst at Thomson IFR.

"US and Japanese investors have been sending their money in the direction of the Eurozone for nearly two years looking for better returns. European equity markets have been popular with US investors in particular. If the market turmoil continues and US and Japanese investors accelerate their repatriation efforts the euro can fall steeply against the US dollar and yen," Noonan said.

At 9.50 am (2250 GMT), the US dollar was buying 105.73 yen after slumping to 106.01 yen in late London trade. The euro was down at 1.4442 US dollars after sinking to 1.4446 US dollars overnight and the sterling was doing 1.9424 US dollars after falling to 1.9432 US dollars.

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was doing 85.98 US cents after skidding to 86.25 US cents as fears of a US recession spreading to the rest of the world led to the Aussie falling against all Group of 10 currencies.

"Sliding equity markets around the world are indications that investors are starting to factor much greater global fallout from a US recession. This backdrop will see the Australian dollar continuing to struggle," said John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at NAB Capital.

Sydney at 9.50 am (2250 GMT)

Daily Trend - CABLE

Trend still very very BEAR :)

Euro Declines as ECB's Mersch Says Risks to Growth Increase

Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell the most this year against the dollar after European Central Bank council member Yves Mersch cited ``downside risks'' to the region's economic growth.

Traders sold euros as the comments fueled speculation the ECB will join the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates this year. Yesterday, the euro rose to within one U.S. cent of a record high as traders bet the ECB would hold its target steady at 4 percent or even lift borrowing costs to control inflation.

``Mersch's comment is a wake-up call,'' said Paresh Upadhyaya, who helps manage $29 billion in currency assets at Putnam Investments LLC in Boston. ``It does raise the chance for a rate cut from the ECB; the market was so complacent with the view that the euro is bulletproof.''

Europe's common currency declined 0.85 percent to $1.4678 at 2:04 p.m. in New York, from $1.4804 yesterday, when it reached $1.4922. It fell to 157.05 yen, from 158.08 yesterday, touching the lowest since September.

``We have certainly downside risks to economic activity,'' Mersch said in an interview at his office in Luxembourg yesterday. While inflation risks have risen, ``we're not unaware of mitigation to price developments,'' he said, citing a stronger euro, near-record oil prices, the slowing U.S. economy and higher credit costs.

Bets on ECB

Futures indicated traders started to bet the ECB will lower its target this year for the first time since 2003. The implied yield on three-month Euribor futures contracts expiring in June fell 0.14 percentage point to 4.08 percent. The contract settles to the three-month interbank offered rate for the euro. That rate averaged 18 basis points more than the ECB's benchmark rate from 1999 until August, when the collapse of the U.S. subprime- mortgage market sparked a squeeze on credit.

``As the economy slows down midway through the year, the ECB may lower rates,'' said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey, with about $250 million funds under management.

Fed funds futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 100 percent likelihood the Fed will lower its target for the U.S. overnight lending rate between banks by at least a half-percentage point to 3.75 percent on Jan. 30. The chance of a cut to 3.5 percent this month is 46 percent, compared with zero a week ago.

Economic activity rose at a ``slower pace'' from mid- November through December, the Fed said today in its Beige Book regional survey.

`Losing Momentum'

Euro-region inflation, which held at 3.1 percent in December, may return to the ECB's 2 percent limit next year if oil prices ease and wages don't rise excessively, ECB council members Michael Bonello, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi and Axel Weber all said this week. Crude oil fell below $90 a barrel for the first time in four weeks today.

Retail sales in the 15-nation single currency region fell 1.4 percent in November from a year earlier, the biggest decline in at least a decade, a report from the European Union statistics office showed Jan. 8.

``Growth in Europe is losing momentum,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``The euro is vulnerable.''

The dollar rose to 107.05 yen from 106.78 yesterday. It dropped as low as 105.92 yen earlier, the first time below 106 yen since May 2005, as widening losses in credit markets led traders to exit purchases of assets financed with borrowed yen.

No `Free Fall'

The U.S. currency also fell to a record low against the Swiss franc on analysts' expectations U.S. financial companies including Merrill Lynch & Co. will follow Citigroup Inc. in writing down the value of investments linked to U.S. mortgages.

The dollar started to pare its drop versus the yen after a government report showed foreign appetite for U.S. assets didn't wane significantly in November as the U.S. currency fell. A report showing U.S. industrial production was flat last month, rather than falling as economists expected, also supported the dollar.

``It's not a free fall for the dollar,'','' said Lane Newman, director of currency trading at ING Financial Markets LLC in New York. ``The attractiveness of U.S. assets is not going away.''

Net foreign buying of U.S. financial assets totaled $90.9 billion in November, from $114 billion the prior month, Treasury Department data showed today. Economists expected a drop to $50 billion, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.

U.S. industrial production was unchanged in December, after a 0.3 percent increase in November, the Fed said. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey was for a drop of 0.2 percent.

Merrill, the world's biggest brokerage, will probably report a record loss of $3.23 billion for the fourth quarter tomorrow, analysts estimate. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the U.S.'s third-largest bank, said today profit fell 34 percent to $2.97 billion, after writedowns of $1.3 billion on subprime-mortgage investments.

Souce: Bloomberg.com