Trade #032
BUY - GBP/USD (H1)
Entry = 1.9585
Exit = 1.9620
Profit = 35 pips
Total = + 1893 pips (32 trades)
Real Time Journal = http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=64768
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
Trade # 032
Trade #032
BUY - GBP/USD (H1)
Entry = 1.9585
Exit = 1.9620
Profit = 35 pips
Total = + 1893 pips (32 trades)
Real Time Journal = http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=64768
Thursday, January 24, 2008
England, Wales corporate insolvencies down 7.3 pct in 2007 vs 2006
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Corporate insolvencies in England and Wales fell by 7.3 pct in 2007 compared with 2006, despite the effects of the credit crunch during the last few months of the year, figures from PricewaterhouseCoopers showed.
A total of 11,147 businesses across England and Wales entered into insolvency last year, against 12,031 in 2006.
Mike Jervis, partner in the Business Recovery Services practice at PricewaterhouseCoopers attributed the improvement to "the growing sophistication amongst management teams of distressed businesses and other stakeholders and the fact that techniques to avert insolvency are now very well developed".
"Businesses, banks and their advisers now have a track record of spotting problems early and acting quickly to put in place financial and operational restructurings," he said.
However, he said 2008 could be a different story as companies face the problems associated with the credit crunch, slower economic growth, and reduced consumer spending power.
"While the UK economy has shown resilience over the last twelve months, there remain substantial risks going forward... this is not the right moment to relax," he said.
The details of the release revealed some differing trends across sectors. While manufacturing and retail insolvencies fell by 14.8 pct and 6.4 pct respectively over 2007, insolvencies in the hospitality and leisure sector jumped by 22 pct.
Jervis said the troubles in the hospitality and leisure sector have been largely due to the smoking ban, increased competition from supermarkets, rising costs and a general slowdown in consumer expenditure. These insolvencies, however, have "tended to be at the smaller end of this market", he said.
Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=638d0b9f-f013-43d7-a948-ad866a0d55f8
A total of 11,147 businesses across England and Wales entered into insolvency last year, against 12,031 in 2006.
Mike Jervis, partner in the Business Recovery Services practice at PricewaterhouseCoopers attributed the improvement to "the growing sophistication amongst management teams of distressed businesses and other stakeholders and the fact that techniques to avert insolvency are now very well developed".
"Businesses, banks and their advisers now have a track record of spotting problems early and acting quickly to put in place financial and operational restructurings," he said.
However, he said 2008 could be a different story as companies face the problems associated with the credit crunch, slower economic growth, and reduced consumer spending power.
"While the UK economy has shown resilience over the last twelve months, there remain substantial risks going forward... this is not the right moment to relax," he said.
The details of the release revealed some differing trends across sectors. While manufacturing and retail insolvencies fell by 14.8 pct and 6.4 pct respectively over 2007, insolvencies in the hospitality and leisure sector jumped by 22 pct.
Jervis said the troubles in the hospitality and leisure sector have been largely due to the smoking ban, increased competition from supermarkets, rising costs and a general slowdown in consumer expenditure. These insolvencies, however, have "tended to be at the smaller end of this market", he said.
Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=638d0b9f-f013-43d7-a948-ad866a0d55f8
Forex - US dollar mixed Sydney morning; euro up strong data, hawkish talk
SYDNEY (Thomson Financial) - The US dollar was trading mixed against major currencies on Friday morning in Sydney, caught between strong European data and increased risk appetite which has seen the greenback rise against the yen as carry traders return to the market.
The possibility of a further rate cut by the Federal Reserve on January 30 on top of this week's surprise three-quarter percentage point cut is giving support to the euro, along with a stronger than expected German IFO survey and hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials.
At 9.45 am (2245 GMT), the dollar was up at 107.18 yen from 106.85 in late New York trade while the euro had risen to 1.4756 dollars from 1.4745 in late New York trade.
"The market had been pricing in a rate cut by the ECB but hawkish comments by ECB officials makes it clear they're worried about inflation so that that's giving support to the euro," said Sally Auld, a senior currency strategist at ANZ Investment Bank.
ECB council member Axel Weber took a dismissive tone on a euro-zone rate cut Thursday, compounding ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's statement on Wednesday, which suggested he was sticking with his anti-inflation stance and would not follow the Fed in cutting rates.
Auld said the comments served to highlight the widening interest rate differential between the US and the euro-zone.
She said the yen is losing some support as equity markets around the world start to recover from steep losses seen at the start of the week.
"The yen is the currency of choice when there's uncertainty so it's a touch weaker against the dollar though broadly steady," Auld said.
She said there's also more interest in carry trades to the benefit of the Australian dollar, which has moved above 94 yen from around 90 yen earlier in the week.
John Noonan at Thomson IFR said the world's financial markets have radically changed since the start of the week when "doom and gloom" dominated all markets.
He said the emergency three-quarter percentage point Fed rate cut proved to be a circuit breaker for the ailing equity markets.
That move has been backed up with what are perceived to be genuine efforts from US lawmakers to deal with the specific problems facing the US economy such as consumer spending, mortgage stress and the prospect of more downgrades of bond insurers.
"While these efforts may not head off a US recession they may ensure that a US slowdown will be shallow and short-lived and not put a severe dent into the global growth outlook," Noonan said.
For foreign exchange markets, Noonan said that means more risk appetite which, along with improving commodity prices, is giving support to the Australian dollar.
"If this more buoyant mood continues to prevail it would provide enormous support for the Australian dollar," Noonan said.
The possibility of a further rate cut by the Federal Reserve on January 30 on top of this week's surprise three-quarter percentage point cut is giving support to the euro, along with a stronger than expected German IFO survey and hawkish comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials.
At 9.45 am (2245 GMT), the dollar was up at 107.18 yen from 106.85 in late New York trade while the euro had risen to 1.4756 dollars from 1.4745 in late New York trade.
"The market had been pricing in a rate cut by the ECB but hawkish comments by ECB officials makes it clear they're worried about inflation so that that's giving support to the euro," said Sally Auld, a senior currency strategist at ANZ Investment Bank.
ECB council member Axel Weber took a dismissive tone on a euro-zone rate cut Thursday, compounding ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's statement on Wednesday, which suggested he was sticking with his anti-inflation stance and would not follow the Fed in cutting rates.
Auld said the comments served to highlight the widening interest rate differential between the US and the euro-zone.
She said the yen is losing some support as equity markets around the world start to recover from steep losses seen at the start of the week.
"The yen is the currency of choice when there's uncertainty so it's a touch weaker against the dollar though broadly steady," Auld said.
She said there's also more interest in carry trades to the benefit of the Australian dollar, which has moved above 94 yen from around 90 yen earlier in the week.
John Noonan at Thomson IFR said the world's financial markets have radically changed since the start of the week when "doom and gloom" dominated all markets.
He said the emergency three-quarter percentage point Fed rate cut proved to be a circuit breaker for the ailing equity markets.
That move has been backed up with what are perceived to be genuine efforts from US lawmakers to deal with the specific problems facing the US economy such as consumer spending, mortgage stress and the prospect of more downgrades of bond insurers.
"While these efforts may not head off a US recession they may ensure that a US slowdown will be shallow and short-lived and not put a severe dent into the global growth outlook," Noonan said.
For foreign exchange markets, Noonan said that means more risk appetite which, along with improving commodity prices, is giving support to the Australian dollar.
"If this more buoyant mood continues to prevail it would provide enormous support for the Australian dollar," Noonan said.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Pound Mixed Againts Major
(RTTNews) - In early deals on Wednesday, the British pound strengthened against the euro but it trended down against the rest of majors. Investors considered UK's fourth quarter GDP data and minutes of the Bank of England's recent MPC meeting. The sterling strengthened against its European counterpart amid the across the board weakening of the latter.
Latest report from the UK national statistical office showed that the British economy grew at a slower pace of 2.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, compared to 3.3% in the third quarter. Sequentially, the growth rate stood at 0.6% in the fourth quarter, slightly down from 0.7% recorded in third quarter, the lowest growth rate since the third quarter of 2006. But the economy grew more than analyst's prediction of 0.5%.
Also, BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to hold the key interest rate at 5.5%, data released at 4:30 am ET showed. David Blanchflower voted against, preferring a reduction of 25 basis points. The MPC kept rates on hold this month after voting unanimously for a cut in December.
The Bank of England Governor Mervyn king said yesterday that rising food prices, energy and imports may force him to write more than one letter of explanation to the Chancellor, as the consumer prices hit 2.1% above the central bank's target rate of 2.0%. Governor of the British central bank has only written one such letter - in April last year - since the institution gained independence in 1997.
The US Federal Reserve unexpectedly lowered the interest rates by 75 basis points to 3.5% yesterday. The surprise rate cut was part of a broad effort to stop the economy from slipping into a clear recession.
The British pound fell to 1.9534 against the US dollar at about 6:05 am ET, Wednesday. The pound-dollar pair was worth 1.9611 at yesterday's close.
In the Asian deals on Wednesday, the British pound declined against the Japanese Yen. The pair added to its losses during the European session and touched 206.96 at 6:00 am Eastern Time, down from 208.76 late Tuesday in New York.
The pound equaled a 1-week low of 2.1373 against its Swiss counterpart at about 11:40 pm ET, Tuesday. The pound started moving higher thereafter, but slipped after hitting a high of 2.1529 at about 3:25 am ET. Currently, the pair is trading near 2.1387.
The UK's sterling weakened to 0.7485 against the euro at about 1:45 am ET, Wednesday. However, the sterling traded higher thereafter and reached 0.7443 against the euro at about 4:40 am ET. The pound that closed yesterday's trading against the common currency at 0.7463 is now worth 0.7454.
For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com
Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Latest report from the UK national statistical office showed that the British economy grew at a slower pace of 2.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, compared to 3.3% in the third quarter. Sequentially, the growth rate stood at 0.6% in the fourth quarter, slightly down from 0.7% recorded in third quarter, the lowest growth rate since the third quarter of 2006. But the economy grew more than analyst's prediction of 0.5%.
Also, BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to hold the key interest rate at 5.5%, data released at 4:30 am ET showed. David Blanchflower voted against, preferring a reduction of 25 basis points. The MPC kept rates on hold this month after voting unanimously for a cut in December.
The Bank of England Governor Mervyn king said yesterday that rising food prices, energy and imports may force him to write more than one letter of explanation to the Chancellor, as the consumer prices hit 2.1% above the central bank's target rate of 2.0%. Governor of the British central bank has only written one such letter - in April last year - since the institution gained independence in 1997.
The US Federal Reserve unexpectedly lowered the interest rates by 75 basis points to 3.5% yesterday. The surprise rate cut was part of a broad effort to stop the economy from slipping into a clear recession.
The British pound fell to 1.9534 against the US dollar at about 6:05 am ET, Wednesday. The pound-dollar pair was worth 1.9611 at yesterday's close.
In the Asian deals on Wednesday, the British pound declined against the Japanese Yen. The pair added to its losses during the European session and touched 206.96 at 6:00 am Eastern Time, down from 208.76 late Tuesday in New York.
The pound equaled a 1-week low of 2.1373 against its Swiss counterpart at about 11:40 pm ET, Tuesday. The pound started moving higher thereafter, but slipped after hitting a high of 2.1529 at about 3:25 am ET. Currently, the pair is trading near 2.1387.
The UK's sterling weakened to 0.7485 against the euro at about 1:45 am ET, Wednesday. However, the sterling traded higher thereafter and reached 0.7443 against the euro at about 4:40 am ET. The pound that closed yesterday's trading against the common currency at 0.7463 is now worth 0.7454.
For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com
Copyright(c) 2008 RealTimeTraders.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Monday, January 21, 2008
Forex - Dollar higher against euro, sterling amid fears US recession will spread
(AFX UK Focus) 2008-01-21 23:33 GMT:
SYDNEY (Thomson Financial) - The US dollar extended gains against the euro and sterling but fell further against the yen midway through the morning session in Sydney on Tuesday after European shares plunged on US recession fears, prompting investors to reverse their positions in the euro and move into safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc.
All the major markets in Europe lost between 5 and 7 percent overnight as Euro group president Jean-Claude Juncker conceded a US recession can no longer be ruled out.
With US markets closed for the Martin Luther King public holiday, investors used the precipitous decline of Asian markets to guide them.
The sell-off in European shares is bad news for the euro, which could come under further pressure if the turmoil in financial and credit markets continues, said John Noonan, an analyst at Thomson IFR.
"US and Japanese investors have been sending their money in the direction of the Eurozone for nearly two years looking for better returns. European equity markets have been popular with US investors in particular. If the market turmoil continues and US and Japanese investors accelerate their repatriation efforts the euro can fall steeply against the US dollar and yen," Noonan said.
At 9.50 am (2250 GMT), the US dollar was buying 105.73 yen after slumping to 106.01 yen in late London trade. The euro was down at 1.4442 US dollars after sinking to 1.4446 US dollars overnight and the sterling was doing 1.9424 US dollars after falling to 1.9432 US dollars.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was doing 85.98 US cents after skidding to 86.25 US cents as fears of a US recession spreading to the rest of the world led to the Aussie falling against all Group of 10 currencies.
"Sliding equity markets around the world are indications that investors are starting to factor much greater global fallout from a US recession. This backdrop will see the Australian dollar continuing to struggle," said John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at NAB Capital.
Sydney at 9.50 am (2250 GMT)
SYDNEY (Thomson Financial) - The US dollar extended gains against the euro and sterling but fell further against the yen midway through the morning session in Sydney on Tuesday after European shares plunged on US recession fears, prompting investors to reverse their positions in the euro and move into safe-haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc.
All the major markets in Europe lost between 5 and 7 percent overnight as Euro group president Jean-Claude Juncker conceded a US recession can no longer be ruled out.
With US markets closed for the Martin Luther King public holiday, investors used the precipitous decline of Asian markets to guide them.
The sell-off in European shares is bad news for the euro, which could come under further pressure if the turmoil in financial and credit markets continues, said John Noonan, an analyst at Thomson IFR.
"US and Japanese investors have been sending their money in the direction of the Eurozone for nearly two years looking for better returns. European equity markets have been popular with US investors in particular. If the market turmoil continues and US and Japanese investors accelerate their repatriation efforts the euro can fall steeply against the US dollar and yen," Noonan said.
At 9.50 am (2250 GMT), the US dollar was buying 105.73 yen after slumping to 106.01 yen in late London trade. The euro was down at 1.4442 US dollars after sinking to 1.4446 US dollars overnight and the sterling was doing 1.9424 US dollars after falling to 1.9432 US dollars.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was doing 85.98 US cents after skidding to 86.25 US cents as fears of a US recession spreading to the rest of the world led to the Aussie falling against all Group of 10 currencies.
"Sliding equity markets around the world are indications that investors are starting to factor much greater global fallout from a US recession. This backdrop will see the Australian dollar continuing to struggle," said John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at NAB Capital.
Sydney at 9.50 am (2250 GMT)
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Euro Declines as ECB's Mersch Says Risks to Growth Increase
Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell the most this year against the dollar after European Central Bank council member Yves Mersch cited ``downside risks'' to the region's economic growth.
Traders sold euros as the comments fueled speculation the ECB will join the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates this year. Yesterday, the euro rose to within one U.S. cent of a record high as traders bet the ECB would hold its target steady at 4 percent or even lift borrowing costs to control inflation.
``Mersch's comment is a wake-up call,'' said Paresh Upadhyaya, who helps manage $29 billion in currency assets at Putnam Investments LLC in Boston. ``It does raise the chance for a rate cut from the ECB; the market was so complacent with the view that the euro is bulletproof.''
Europe's common currency declined 0.85 percent to $1.4678 at 2:04 p.m. in New York, from $1.4804 yesterday, when it reached $1.4922. It fell to 157.05 yen, from 158.08 yesterday, touching the lowest since September.
``We have certainly downside risks to economic activity,'' Mersch said in an interview at his office in Luxembourg yesterday. While inflation risks have risen, ``we're not unaware of mitigation to price developments,'' he said, citing a stronger euro, near-record oil prices, the slowing U.S. economy and higher credit costs.
Bets on ECB
Futures indicated traders started to bet the ECB will lower its target this year for the first time since 2003. The implied yield on three-month Euribor futures contracts expiring in June fell 0.14 percentage point to 4.08 percent. The contract settles to the three-month interbank offered rate for the euro. That rate averaged 18 basis points more than the ECB's benchmark rate from 1999 until August, when the collapse of the U.S. subprime- mortgage market sparked a squeeze on credit.
``As the economy slows down midway through the year, the ECB may lower rates,'' said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey, with about $250 million funds under management.
Fed funds futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 100 percent likelihood the Fed will lower its target for the U.S. overnight lending rate between banks by at least a half-percentage point to 3.75 percent on Jan. 30. The chance of a cut to 3.5 percent this month is 46 percent, compared with zero a week ago.
Economic activity rose at a ``slower pace'' from mid- November through December, the Fed said today in its Beige Book regional survey.
`Losing Momentum'
Euro-region inflation, which held at 3.1 percent in December, may return to the ECB's 2 percent limit next year if oil prices ease and wages don't rise excessively, ECB council members Michael Bonello, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi and Axel Weber all said this week. Crude oil fell below $90 a barrel for the first time in four weeks today.
Retail sales in the 15-nation single currency region fell 1.4 percent in November from a year earlier, the biggest decline in at least a decade, a report from the European Union statistics office showed Jan. 8.
``Growth in Europe is losing momentum,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``The euro is vulnerable.''
The dollar rose to 107.05 yen from 106.78 yesterday. It dropped as low as 105.92 yen earlier, the first time below 106 yen since May 2005, as widening losses in credit markets led traders to exit purchases of assets financed with borrowed yen.
No `Free Fall'
The U.S. currency also fell to a record low against the Swiss franc on analysts' expectations U.S. financial companies including Merrill Lynch & Co. will follow Citigroup Inc. in writing down the value of investments linked to U.S. mortgages.
The dollar started to pare its drop versus the yen after a government report showed foreign appetite for U.S. assets didn't wane significantly in November as the U.S. currency fell. A report showing U.S. industrial production was flat last month, rather than falling as economists expected, also supported the dollar.
``It's not a free fall for the dollar,'','' said Lane Newman, director of currency trading at ING Financial Markets LLC in New York. ``The attractiveness of U.S. assets is not going away.''
Net foreign buying of U.S. financial assets totaled $90.9 billion in November, from $114 billion the prior month, Treasury Department data showed today. Economists expected a drop to $50 billion, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
U.S. industrial production was unchanged in December, after a 0.3 percent increase in November, the Fed said. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey was for a drop of 0.2 percent.
Merrill, the world's biggest brokerage, will probably report a record loss of $3.23 billion for the fourth quarter tomorrow, analysts estimate. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the U.S.'s third-largest bank, said today profit fell 34 percent to $2.97 billion, after writedowns of $1.3 billion on subprime-mortgage investments.
Souce: Bloomberg.com
Traders sold euros as the comments fueled speculation the ECB will join the Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates this year. Yesterday, the euro rose to within one U.S. cent of a record high as traders bet the ECB would hold its target steady at 4 percent or even lift borrowing costs to control inflation.
``Mersch's comment is a wake-up call,'' said Paresh Upadhyaya, who helps manage $29 billion in currency assets at Putnam Investments LLC in Boston. ``It does raise the chance for a rate cut from the ECB; the market was so complacent with the view that the euro is bulletproof.''
Europe's common currency declined 0.85 percent to $1.4678 at 2:04 p.m. in New York, from $1.4804 yesterday, when it reached $1.4922. It fell to 157.05 yen, from 158.08 yesterday, touching the lowest since September.
``We have certainly downside risks to economic activity,'' Mersch said in an interview at his office in Luxembourg yesterday. While inflation risks have risen, ``we're not unaware of mitigation to price developments,'' he said, citing a stronger euro, near-record oil prices, the slowing U.S. economy and higher credit costs.
Bets on ECB
Futures indicated traders started to bet the ECB will lower its target this year for the first time since 2003. The implied yield on three-month Euribor futures contracts expiring in June fell 0.14 percentage point to 4.08 percent. The contract settles to the three-month interbank offered rate for the euro. That rate averaged 18 basis points more than the ECB's benchmark rate from 1999 until August, when the collapse of the U.S. subprime- mortgage market sparked a squeeze on credit.
``As the economy slows down midway through the year, the ECB may lower rates,'' said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at FOREX.com, a unit of online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey, with about $250 million funds under management.
Fed funds futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show a 100 percent likelihood the Fed will lower its target for the U.S. overnight lending rate between banks by at least a half-percentage point to 3.75 percent on Jan. 30. The chance of a cut to 3.5 percent this month is 46 percent, compared with zero a week ago.
Economic activity rose at a ``slower pace'' from mid- November through December, the Fed said today in its Beige Book regional survey.
`Losing Momentum'
Euro-region inflation, which held at 3.1 percent in December, may return to the ECB's 2 percent limit next year if oil prices ease and wages don't rise excessively, ECB council members Michael Bonello, Lorenzo Bini Smaghi and Axel Weber all said this week. Crude oil fell below $90 a barrel for the first time in four weeks today.
Retail sales in the 15-nation single currency region fell 1.4 percent in November from a year earlier, the biggest decline in at least a decade, a report from the European Union statistics office showed Jan. 8.
``Growth in Europe is losing momentum,'' said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``The euro is vulnerable.''
The dollar rose to 107.05 yen from 106.78 yesterday. It dropped as low as 105.92 yen earlier, the first time below 106 yen since May 2005, as widening losses in credit markets led traders to exit purchases of assets financed with borrowed yen.
No `Free Fall'
The U.S. currency also fell to a record low against the Swiss franc on analysts' expectations U.S. financial companies including Merrill Lynch & Co. will follow Citigroup Inc. in writing down the value of investments linked to U.S. mortgages.
The dollar started to pare its drop versus the yen after a government report showed foreign appetite for U.S. assets didn't wane significantly in November as the U.S. currency fell. A report showing U.S. industrial production was flat last month, rather than falling as economists expected, also supported the dollar.
``It's not a free fall for the dollar,'','' said Lane Newman, director of currency trading at ING Financial Markets LLC in New York. ``The attractiveness of U.S. assets is not going away.''
Net foreign buying of U.S. financial assets totaled $90.9 billion in November, from $114 billion the prior month, Treasury Department data showed today. Economists expected a drop to $50 billion, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
U.S. industrial production was unchanged in December, after a 0.3 percent increase in November, the Fed said. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey was for a drop of 0.2 percent.
Merrill, the world's biggest brokerage, will probably report a record loss of $3.23 billion for the fourth quarter tomorrow, analysts estimate. JPMorgan Chase & Co., the U.S.'s third-largest bank, said today profit fell 34 percent to $2.97 billion, after writedowns of $1.3 billion on subprime-mortgage investments.
Souce: Bloomberg.com
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